In short: In 2026 global ad spend crosses the $1 trillion mark for the first time ($1.04 trillion according to Dentsu, +5.1% YoY). Digital absorbs 68.7% of the total; the three fastest-growing channels are retail media (+14.1%), online video including CTV (+11.5%) and social (+11.4%). APAC is the most dynamic region (+5.4%); linear TV keeps shrinking.
- 2026 global spend: $1.04 trillion (+5.1%) — source Dentsu Dec 2025
- Digital = 68.7% of total — source eMarketer
- Top 3 growth channels: retail media +14.1%, online video +11.5%, social +11.4% — source WARC
2026 marks a threshold never reached before: according to forecasts published in December 2025 by Dentsu, global ad spend crosses $1 trillion, precisely $1.04 trillion, with 5.1% growth over 2025. The figure is independently confirmed by eMarketer and WARC.
For a marketing manager or business owner deciding how to allocate 2026 budget, the composition matters more than the headline number. Over two-thirds of spend goes to digital, and growth concentrates in three channels: retail media, connected TV and social. The rest — linear TV, print, part of display — is in structural decline.
The 2020-2026 ad spend trend
To understand where the market is heading you need to look at the last six years. In 2020 global spend collapsed 7.2% due to Covid (WARC); in 2021 it rebounded 24%; from 2022 onward the growth rate normalized between 5% and 7% per year. 2026 is the year that closes this normalization cycle by crossing the psychological trillion threshold.
Growth is not uniform. According to Dentsu, APAC leads at +5.4% ($376.4 billion), Americas follow at +5.2% ($460.5 billion), EMEA closes at +4.2%. Within EMEA, Italy is estimated at around +3.5-4%: below the global average, with a market still dominated by linear TV and print compared to Anglo-Saxon standards.
The structural fact: digital is now worth 2.18 times the sum of all traditional channels. In 2019 the ratio was 1:1. In six years the balance has flipped. Anyone planning a 2026 budget with a 2019 playbook is playing a game that no longer exists.
Key data point — Digital is worth 2.18 times all traditional channels combined. In 2019 the ratio was 1:1 (Dentsu). In seven years the balance has flipped; it is the fastest structural transition ever recorded in the advertising market.
Where budgets are growing: retail media, CTV, AI search
The three fastest-growing channels in 2026 are not the ones most Italian SMEs spend on today. This asymmetry is the most concrete opportunity of 2026.
Retail media: +14.1% — digital's third pillar
Retail media — advertising inside retail platforms such as Amazon Ads, Walmart Connect, Instacart Ads — grows 14.1% and crosses $200 billion globally according to Dentsu and IAB. Amazon Ads alone is worth around $60 billion.
The structural advantage: it captures the consumer at the moment of purchase, with first-party data and closed-loop attribution (impression and sale on the same platform). For CFOs it is the only channel with genuinely deterministic ROI. Full deep dive in our 2026 retail media guide.
Online video and CTV: +11.5% — the TV that measures
Online video, Dentsu's category that includes CTV and YouTube, grows 11.5%. CTV (Netflix, Prime Video, ad-supported Disney+, national broadcast platforms) delivers TV-scale reach with digital targeting. CPMs are still favorable because inventory grows faster than demand, but the window will close within 12-18 months.
Social: +11.4% — the largest engine in absolute terms
Social grows 11.4% and remains the largest digital channel in absolute value. The real drivers are not "social" as such: they are short-form video (Reels, TikTok, Shorts), social commerce and algorithmic advertising (Meta Advantage+, YouTube Performance Max).
Search: AI Overview and GEO shift the logic
Search grows more slowly (+6-7%) in absolute value, but the most important transformation is qualitative: Google AI Overview and zero-click search are changing the logic of search advertising. Those who fail to optimize for Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) lose visibility progressively. See our analysis on zero-click search for SMEs.
2026 spend by channel: numbers, growth, sources
Estimates from Dentsu Global Ad Spend Forecasts Dec 2025, consolidated with IAB 2026 Outlook, WARC Global Advertising Trends and Magna Global. 2026 total ≈ $1.04 trillion.
Where budgets are falling: linear TV, print, generic display
Understanding where not to invest is as important as understanding where to invest. Three channels are structurally losing share in 2026.
Linear TV: -2.4%. The decline is accelerating (it was -1.1% in 2024). It remains useful for mass reach on 55+ audiences and live sports events, but CPMs are 3-4 times higher than CTV for the same demographic segment, with no targeting or measurable attribution.
Print: -6.8%. Free fall. It retains a tactical role only in specific niches (luxury, real estate, vertical B2B). As a strategic channel, print has ended its cycle.
Traditional display: +3.1% nominal. Net of CPM inflation, real growth is close to zero. Banners and interstitials survive as programmatic filler. If "display" weighs more than 10% of your media plan, it is time to revisit.
How to allocate budget for an Italian SME
The global recipe does not translate 1:1 into the Italian context. An SME with an annual budget of 50-300k euros in 2026 should think in these operational terms.
1. Social: 35-45% of digital budget. Focus on short-form video (at least 60% of social investment), algorithmic targeting (Advantage+, Performance Max), retargeting with DPA. Zero budget on awareness formats without attribution.
2. Search: 25-35% of digital budget. Google Ads remains essential for transactional intent. Add a share (10-15% of search) for GEO/AI Overview optimization — visibility in generative answers is the new ranking.
3. Retail media: 15-25% if you sell on marketplaces. If you sell on Amazon or in mass retail, Amazon Ads should be treated as a standalone line, not a sub-chapter. In Italy bid competition is still lower than in English-speaking markets: an early-mover advantage.
4. CTV: 10-15% if budget ≥ 100k/year. Below 10-15k euros/month CTV does not deliver statistically significant reach. Above that, Italian CPMs are still favorable compared to the 2027 forecast.
5. Display/OOH/Audio: maximum 10%. Use only in tactical support of campaigns with a clear objective. Never as a main channel.
This split is a starting point: it has to be calibrated by sector, sales model (B2B vs B2C) and funnel stage. The guiding principle remains one: follow channel growth and deterministic attribution, not the inertia of previous plans. As documented in our article on wasted marketing budget, 60% of Italian SMEs get allocation wrong precisely because they replicate last year's mix.
2026 operational checklist — Before signing off the media plan: (1) does digital weigh at least 65%? (2) Is there a dedicated line for retail media if you sell on marketplaces? (3) Has CTV been evaluated if the budget exceeds 100k? (4) Does generic display weigh less than 10%? (5) Is there a line for GEO/AI Overview? If the answer is no to two or more, the plan is obsolete.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Where should you invest your marketing budget in 2026?
In 2026 budget should be concentrated on the fastest-growing digital channels: retail media (+14.1%), online video and CTV (+11.5%), social (+11.4%). For an Italian SME the operational split is roughly 35-45% social, 25-35% search (with a GEO share), 15-25% retail media if selling on marketplaces, 10-15% CTV above 100k annual budget, maximum 10% on traditional display and OOH. Avoid linear TV and print as strategic channels.
How much is global ad spend worth in 2026?
Global ad spend reaches $1.04 trillion in 2026, according to Dentsu's Global Ad Spend Forecast (December 2025). It is the first time in history that the $1 trillion threshold is crossed. Growth over 2025 is 5.1%, above global GDP growth (+3.1%). The figure is confirmed by eMarketer and WARC.
What is retail media and why is it growing so fast?
Retail media is advertising sold directly by retail platforms (Amazon Ads, Walmart Connect, Instacart Ads, in Europe Tesco Media, Carrefour Links). It grows 14.1% in 2026 and is worth $200 billion globally. The structural reason: it captures the consumer at the moment of purchase with first-party data and offers closed-loop attribution, i.e. 1:1 between impression and sale on the same platform. For CFOs and finance leaders it is the only digital channel with genuinely deterministic ROI.
Digital or TV for an Italian SME?
For most Italian SMEs the answer is digital, with a possible CTV exception above certain budgets. Linear TV offers reach, but at CPMs 3-4 times higher than CTV for the same demographic segment and with no targeting or measurement. Below 200k euros/year in budget, linear TV is rarely efficient. CTV (ad-supported Netflix, Prime Video, Mediaset Infinity, Sky) becomes worth evaluating above 10-15k/month of investment, where it generates statistically significant reach with still-favorable CPMs.
How much to invest in AI search and GEO in 2026?
For an SME with active search advertising, 10-15% of the search budget should be dedicated to GEO (Generative Engine Optimization): optimizing content to appear in Google AI Overview, ChatGPT, Perplexity answers. It is not a direct spend channel like Google Ads, but it requires structured content (FAQ schema, answer passages, dense tables) and visibility monitoring in AI engines. SMEs ignoring this evolution are already seeing organic CTR on informational queries drop 15-30%.
Why do 41% of campaigns still need 3-4 weeks to launch?
The bottleneck is not technological but organizational. Platforms allow campaigns to be created and launched in hours. Delays come from cascading approval processes, incomplete briefs, endless review rounds, disconnection between creative and media teams. Only 3.6% of organizations manage to launch in less than seven days according to Basis Technologies. Companies winning in 2026 have redesigned the process: integrated teams, modular briefs, pre-approved creative assets with variants, automated approval workflows.
Sources and References
- Dentsu — Global Ad Spend Set to Surpass $1 Trillion for First Time in 2026 (Dec 2025)
- Dentsu — Ad Spend Forecasts December 2025 (full report)
- eMarketer — Global Ad Spend to Top $1 Trillion as Digital and Retail Media Surge
- WARC — Global Ad Spend to Top $1 Trillion in 2026
- IAB — 2026 Digital Ad Spend & Strategy Outlook
- Magna Global — Global Advertising Forecasts (winter update)
- GroupM — This Year Next Year Global End-of-Year Forecast
- Basis Technologies — Programmatic Advertising Trends 2026
