In short: When Google shows an AI Overview, websites get far fewer clicks: the first organic result loses 58% of its clicks (Ahrefs, February 2026), and a randomized experiment measured a 39.8% drop in outbound organic clicks (Agarwal and Sen, SSRN, 2026). For an SME the answer is to get cited inside AI answers and to measure visibility, not just traffic.
- Zero-click: in 2024, 58.5% of Google searches in the US and 59.7% in the EU ended without a click to any website (SparkToro, Datos data).
- Reach: AI Overviews appear on 48% of the queries BrightEdge tracked in February 2026, up from about 30% a year earlier.
- Clicks halved: with an AI summary, users click a result in 8% of visits; without one, in 15% (Pew Research, March 2025 browsing data).
- Being cited helps: in Seer Interactive's Q3 2025 data, brands cited in the AI Overview get 35% higher organic CTR than brands that are not.
- Europe and Italy: AI Overviews launched in Italy on 26 March 2025; AI Mode in Italian followed on 8 October 2025.
How many clicks does an AI Overview really take away?
A lot, and now there is experimental proof. In April 2026 Saharsh Agarwal (Indian School of Business) and Ananya Sen (Carnegie Mellon) posted on SSRN the first randomized experiment on the topic: 1,065 US desktop Chrome users, split between people who saw normal Google and people whose AI Overviews were hidden by a browser extension. On queries where the summary appeared, outbound organic clicks fell by 39.8% and zero-click searches rose by 34.5% (PPC Land, July 2026). The paper is still a preprint, but it is the first result that separates cause from coincidence.
Observational data points the same way. Ahrefs compared the CTR of 300,000 keywords between December 2023 and December 2025: when an AI Overview is present, the top organic result gets 58% fewer clicks than it would have without one (Ahrefs, 4 February 2026). In the first version of the study, April 2025, the loss was 34.5%.
| Study | Method | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Agarwal and Sen, SSRN 2026 | Randomized experiment, 1,065 US users | Outbound organic clicks -39.8% with AI Overview |
| Ahrefs, February 2026 | 300,000 keywords, desktop Search Console, Dec 2023 vs Dec 2025 | Position 1 CTR -58% with AI Overview |
| Pew Research, July 2025 | 900 US adults, March 2025 browsing | Result clicked in 8% of visits with AI summary, 15% without |
| Seer Interactive, September 2025 | 3,119 queries, 42 organizations, 25.1M impressions | Organic CTR 1.62% without AI Overview, 0.61% with |
Pew adds a detail that matters: links inside the AI summary are clicked in just 1% of visits (Pew Research Center, 22 July 2025).
Google disputes these readings. On 6 August 2025 Liz Reid, head of Google Search, wrote that total organic click volume to websites has been "relatively stable" year over year (Google blog), without publishing the figures. The two views only partly overlap: if searches keep growing, the total can hold even with fewer clicks per search. For your site, what counts is the CTR on your queries, and that is where all four studies agree.
The silent crisis: when Google stops sending traffic
The baseline is still SparkToro's study on Datos clickstream data: in 2024, 58.5% of Google searches in the US and 59.7% in the European Union ended without a click to the open web (SparkToro, 2024). The user searches, reads the answer on the results page and leaves. Zero clicks. Zero visits to your site.
That figure captures a period when AI Overviews had only just started in the US and did not yet exist in Europe. Since then Gemini-generated summaries have spread to almost half of all searches, so today's share is very likely higher. For news, Similarweb measured it: news searches ending without a click to a news site rose from 56% in May 2024 to 69% in May 2025 (Press Gazette, Similarweb data).
For SMEs, the question is not whether organic traffic will decline, but by how much and with what strategy to offset it. You need to measure, understand the mechanism and move before your competitors do.
How widespread are AI Overviews in 2026?
Almost one search in two. BrightEdge, which tracks a panel of queries across industries, found AI Overviews on 48% of searches in February 2026, up from about 30% in February 2025: a 58% increase in one year (BrightEdge, 12 February 2026). The space they take up is growing too: the average box went from about 1,050 to 1,200 pixels tall, which pushes the first organic result below the fold on almost any phone.
The same study contradicts a common belief, namely that AI mostly cites whoever already ranks first. Only 16-17% of the sources cited in AI Overviews also sit in the organic top 10; widen it to the top 100 and you reach 53%. In some industries most cited links come from outside the top 100:
| Industry | Cited sources outside the organic top 100 (Feb 2026) |
|---|---|
| Restaurants | 76.0% |
| Finance | 65.7% |
| E-commerce | 61.5% |
| Travel | 47.8% |
| Education | 28.2% |
| B2B Tech | 28.1% |
| Healthcare | 22.5% |
For an SME this changes the game: ranking still helps, but AI answers also pick sources that are not on page one, as long as they hold the right answer written in an extractable way. In restaurants, travel and e-commerce the field is more open than it looks.
AI Mode and the European picture
In Italy AI Overviews arrived on 26 March 2025 (ItaliaOggi), and on 8 October 2025 Google opened AI Mode in Italian as well: the conversational, Gemini-based search tab where sources appear inside the answer instead of as a list of links (Punto Informatico). In AI Mode, a click to a website is the exception by design.
SMEs that have historically invested less in SEO than their English-speaking peers start with a double handicap: lower domain authority and less content written to be cited. The flip side is the opportunity: in many local-language niches, a well-built answer simply does not exist yet.
Gartner, Bain and the decline of traditional search traffic
In February 2024 Gartner predicted a 25% drop in traditional search engine volume by 2026, driven by AI chatbots and virtual agents. That forecast was about search volume; 2025-2026 data shows a drop in clicks per search instead, which for a website has the same effect.
Bain & Company measured the habit: in a December 2024 Dynata survey of 1,117 consumers, about 80% rely on zero-click results in at least 40% of their searches, and Bain estimates organic traffic falling by 15% to 25%.
Meanwhile, traffic from AI assistants is growing. In Previsible's sample of nearly two million LLM-driven sessions over one year, visits from ChatGPT went from 47,606 in November 2024 to 155,042 in November 2025, 3.26 times as many (Previsible, AI SEO Study 2025). Small numbers next to Google, but growing fast.
Why panic is wrong (but inertia is lethal)
Before tearing up the editorial plan, look at the other half of the data.
- Being cited lifts CTR. In Seer's Q3 2025 data, with an AI Overview that cites the brand, organic CTR is 0.70% versus 0.52% for non-cited brands (+35%), and paid CTR is 7.89% versus 4.14% (+91%) (Seer Interactive). Seer itself warns it cannot prove causation: cited brands are often the better-known ones.
- AI also picks sources beyond page one, as BrightEdge shows: an opening for SMEs without big authority.
- Traffic from AI assistants is growing and arrives with a precise need.
Traditional SEO is not dead; its target is shifting. Those who adapt now, while many competitors are stuck between panic and denial, win positions that will be hard to take back later.
Welcome to GEO: Generative Engine Optimization
If SEO aims to make you appear on the results page, GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) aims to get you cited in AI-generated answers. The term comes from academic research (Aggarwal et al., Princeton and IIT Delhi, 2023), which tested which content changes raise visibility in generative engine answers: adding source citations, statistics and quotations produced the largest gains.
The practical difference: SEO puts you in a list, GEO puts you inside an answer. A citation in an AI answer carries a different weight, because the user sees your brand presented as the chosen source.
Each platform has its own habits, and they change often. The rule that holds for all of them is simple: clarity beats creativity. A passage that answers a question directly and fully, and still makes sense when lifted out of the page, is what a model can take and cite.
How to optimize for AI search: the SME checklist
The concrete actions, ordered by impact.
1. Restructure every piece of content with "citation blocks"
Open each section with a direct 40-60 word answer that stands on its own. It is the passage AI can lift into its summary. Then develop the reasoning below.
2. Increase factual density
Add verifiable data, statistics and quotes, with the source linked. It was the most effective lever in the Princeton GEO experiment. Never make numbers up: a false figure is the fastest way to lose trust, with people and with models.
3. Implement schema markup
FAQPage, Article, Product, Organization, Person for the author: every relevant schema makes content easier for machines to read. Supported types are listed in Google Search Central's documentation.
4. Build real authorship
Sign content with real, competent people, with a bio that explains why they know what they are talking about, linked to your About page and professional profiles. Google's guidance on helpful content asks exactly that: make clear who wrote it and why to trust them.
5. Optimize for conversational questions
AI Overviews and AI Mode answer natural-language questions. Build content around real customer questions: the Search Console "Queries" report, questions your sales and support teams hear, tools like AlsoAsked or AnswerThePublic.
6. Diversify formats
Video, infographics, interactive tools: Bain recommends diversifying formats to be found in generative search. YouTube belongs to Google, and a well-described video can land in answers as easily as an article.
7. Make the brand consistent as an entity
Your company description on your website, LinkedIn, Google Business Profile, Wikidata and industry directories must say the same thing in the same words. When signals align, a model understands who you are and links you to the right questions.
8. Measure Share of Model
The key GEO metric is Share of Model: how often the brand appears in AI answers compared with competitors, on the questions that matter. Tools such as Profound, Otterly.ai, BrightEdge and Semrush's AI Toolkit track it. Without measurement, strategy flies blind.
9. Do not abandon traditional SEO
GEO adds to SEO. 53% of the sources cited in AI Overviews still sit in the organic top 100 (BrightEdge), and good rankings remain a pool AI draws from. Digital PR and quality links still matter.
10. Own unlinked mentions
Brand mentions without a link, in articles, forums, reviews and social media, help models recognize the company as an entity. Monitor them and grow them.
Where to start when resources are limited
You do not need to do everything at once. Priorities depend on your industry and on the searches that bring customers.
B2B and professional services: start with points 1, 2 and 4: citation blocks, factual density and authorship. These are informational queries, where AI Overviews show up most.
Retail and e-commerce: focus on points 3 and 7, Product schema and entity consistency. According to BrightEdge, 61.5% of sources cited in e-commerce sit outside the top 100: there is room beyond the giants.
Restaurants and tourism: point 5 comes first. Write the answer to specific questions such as "best gluten-free restaurant in Milan" or "what to see in Florence in three days", and keep your Google Business Profile up to date.
The new metric: not just traffic, but AI visibility
Rand Fishkin of SparkToro says it bluntly: in a zero-click world, traffic is a terrible goal. The metrics to track alongside clicks:
- Search impressions: how often the brand appears, even without clicks.
- AI citations: how many AI answers cite the brand.
- Share of Model: your share of citations versus competitors.
- Branded searches: how many people search for the company by name.
The practical advice for an SME: check in Google Search Console the queries that contain your brand name. If they grow while generic organic traffic falls, the strategy is working, because no summary can intercept a search for your name.
Zero-click marketing: create value where people already are
SparkToro calls zero-click marketing the practice of delivering full value on the platforms where people spend their time, instead of publishing teasers in the hope of a click. A LinkedIn post that is the resource, not a pointer to the blog. A reel that solves the problem.
The website still matters. But if most searches generate no click, betting everything on "driving traffic to the site" means betting everything on a shrinking channel. The site stays the foundation; the value goes where the audience is.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is zero-click search?
A search that ends without a click to any website: the answer comes from the results page, through an AI Overview, a snippet or a knowledge panel. In 2024 that was 58.5% of Google searches in the US and 59.7% in the EU (SparkToro, Datos data).
How much traffic do AI Overviews cost?
It depends on the query, but the loss is large: -58% CTR for position 1 according to Ahrefs (2026), and -39.8% outbound organic clicks in Agarwal and Sen's randomized experiment (2026).
Are AI Overviews available in Europe?
Yes. In Italy they launched on 26 March 2025, and AI Mode in Italian followed on 8 October 2025.
How do you optimize for AI Overviews in 2026?
Direct 40-60 word answers at the top of each section, data with sources, schema markup, recognizable authors and a brand described the same way everywhere. Then measure Share of Model.
Do zero-click searches kill SEO?
No, they change it. Organic rankings remain a pool of citations, but the goal shifts from the click to presence inside the answer.
How do you measure zero-click visibility?
With Search Console impressions, branded searches, sessions from chatgpt.com, perplexity.ai and gemini.google.com in Google Analytics, and a Share of Model tool.
Do you need an SEO strategy built for AI?
When almost half of all searches show an AI summary, classic SEO alone is not enough. You need an SEO + GEO strategy that works on content, authors, schema markup and links so you get cited, not just indexed, by Google AI Overviews, AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity and Gemini.
At Deep Marketing we design AI-ready SEO strategies for growing companies: Share of Model audits, content rewritten into citation blocks, digital PR and link building. Discover our SEO, GEO & Link Building service or get in touch to talk it through.
Sources
- Agarwal and Sen, randomized experiment on AI Overviews (SSRN 2026), PPC Land summary
- Ahrefs, AI Overviews Reduce Clicks by 58% (February 2026)
- Pew Research Center, Google users are less likely to click on links when an AI summary appears (July 2025)
- Seer Interactive, AIO Impact on Google CTR: September 2025 Update
- BrightEdge, AI Overviews at the One-Year Mark (February 2026)
- SparkToro, 2024 Zero-Click Search Study
- SparkToro, In a Zero-Click World, Traffic is a Terrible Goal
- Press Gazette, Similarweb data on zero-click news searches (2025)
- Google, Liz Reid: AI in Search is driving more queries and higher quality clicks (August 2025)
- Bain & Company, Goodbye Clicks, Hello AI (February 2025)
- Gartner, Search Engine Volume Will Drop 25% by 2026 (February 2024)
- Previsible, AI SEO Study 2025
- ItaliaOggi, AI Overview launches in Italy (March 2025, Italian)
- Punto Informatico, Google AI Mode arrives in Italy (October 2025, Italian)
- Aggarwal et al., GEO: Generative Engine Optimization (arXiv 2023)
- Google Search Central, structured data
Further reading: AI Content Marketing: Why It All Looks the Same (Fix), Brand Audit for Italian SMBs: The Complete Framework (2026) and Share of Search: the Free Predictor of Market Share.
PS: the cover image was generated with artificial intelligence.
